Constant-Kielbasa
0xc4fb68273d5affdead8dcf7a10186c845890cd2c
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$13.24
Total PnL
$-4.74
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?
2 shares @ 45.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$2.22
$1.22
- YES
Will Metz be relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season?
2 shares @ 48.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$2.08
$1.08
- NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK
Spread: North Carolina State Wolfpack (-8.5)
2 shares @ 52.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$1.91
$0.92
- ST. BONAVENTURE BONNIES
Spread: St. Bonaventure Bonnies (-5.5)
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$1.88
$0.88
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
2 shares @ 57.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$1.75
$0.75
- YES
Will Trump make no announcement by December 31 to replace Lisa Cook?
1 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.43
$0.43
- YES
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2 shares @ 54.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.10
$0.10
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
2 shares @ 54.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.60
$-0.40
- YES
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
2 shares @ 60.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.26
$-0.74
- YES
Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2025?
3 shares @ 79.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYSpread: Kentucky Wildcats (-7.5)$1.00Mar 11, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: North Carolina State Wolfpack (-8.5)$1.00Mar 11, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: St. Bonaventure Bonnies (-5.5)$1.00Mar 11, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?$1.00Jan 6, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Cornyn come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$1.00Jan 6, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$1.00Jan 6, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrove FDV above $20M one day after launch?$1.00Jan 6, 13:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.00Jan 6, 13:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$1.00Jan 6, 13:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Evelyn Matthei come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?$1.00Nov 14, 12:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2025?$1.00Oct 28, 06:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2025?$1.00Oct 28, 06:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 15+ times during his AI speech on July 23?$1.61Oct 8, 07:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Prince Andrew be named in newly released Epstein files?$2.08Oct 8, 07:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $130k in October?$1.00Oct 8, 07:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump make no announcement by December 31 to replace Lisa Cook?$1.00Sep 2, 08:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Metz be relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season?$1.00Aug 19, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest?$1.00Aug 7, 11:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Prince Andrew be named in newly released Epstein files?$1.00Jul 29, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 15+ times during his AI speech on July 23?$1.00Jul 22, 13:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 05:47 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 11, 11:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".