Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
Probability
52¢
1h
+4.5pp
24h
+6.0pp
24h Vol
$10.00
Liquidity
$25.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+6.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 6pp over 24h
Now 52¢; +4.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved up 6.0pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover.
- 3
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1234h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 4
Wide spread — 7.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1234.1h
- 13:56SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Momentum up
Probability moved up 6.0pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover.
- 13:56SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1234h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 52¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 46¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 43¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 48¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 52¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 51¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oklahoma, scheduled to take place on June 16, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oklahoma Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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