Glamorous-Stitcher
0xc6587b11a2209e46dfe3928b31c5514a8e33b784
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
60
Open notional
$535.7K
Total PnL
$-1.1M
Realised
$-60.7K
Win rate
35%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 60- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
285171 shares @ 74.2¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$260.9K
$49.3K
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
645467 shares @ 25.1¢·now 20.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$130.7K
$-31.6K
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
74141 shares @ 90.5¢·now 96.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$71.7K
$4.7K
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
167188 shares @ 26.0¢·now 20.6¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$34.5K
$-8.9K
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
27158 shares @ 82.7¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.8K
$1.3K
- YES
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
36834 shares @ 37.5¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.3K
$-8.5K
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
52691 shares @ 12.5¢·now 6.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.4K
$-3.2K
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
5117 shares @ 48.4¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.3K
$-202.48
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
25739 shares @ 9.0¢·now 4.7¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.2K
$-1.1K
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
1161 shares @ 91.0¢·now 97.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$73.42
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$43.9KJul 28, 15:09 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$469.76Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$27.8KJul 27, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$27.8KJul 27, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$13.9KJul 27, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$14.0KJul 27, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$27.4KJul 27, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$27.7KJul 27, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$27.5KJul 27, 20:12 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$10.53Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$3.4KJul 22, 14:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.7KJul 16, 14:09 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$26.41Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$6.11Jul 16, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$16.2KJul 15, 20:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$4.36Jul 15, 20:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.62Jul 15, 20:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$10.0KJul 15, 20:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.00Jul 15, 20:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$177.92Jul 15, 20:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
31/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
35% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
18%
Sample
limited
3 ledger trades
Top market concentration
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
$349.3K · 82% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $15.3K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 15:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 15:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.