Cultured-Artery-Inhabitant
0xc805899abbf2b70ad858449bef5b2d2670770bc4
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
31
Open notional
$23.97
Total PnL
$-115.88
Realised
$-5.48
Win rate
11%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
7 shares @ 68.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.68
$0.73
- NO
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?
6 shares @ 86.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.86
$-0.09
- YES
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?
6 shares @ 84.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$4.68
$-0.27
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
62 shares @ 8.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.64
$-0.31
- NO
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
4 shares @ 53.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.10
$-0.20
- ANTHROPIC
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
1 shares @ 77.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$1.22
$0.12
- YES
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026?
51 shares @ 7.0¢·now 1.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.74
$-2.81
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
4 shares @ 57.0¢·now 1.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.05
$-2.05
- YES
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day?
1600 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.20
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
495 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-4.95
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$2.03Jul 14, 15:44 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$2.97Jul 14, 15:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President before 2027?$4.95Jul 10, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?$4.98Jul 10, 08:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$4.80Jul 8, 14:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$2.17Jul 2, 06:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026?$0.17Jul 2, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$4.95Jul 1, 14:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jul 1, 12:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026?$0.76Jul 1, 10:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$1.60Jun 30, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$4.95Jun 30, 09:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Democrats win all "core four" senate races?$2.55Jun 29, 23:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Democrats win all "core four" senate races?$5.04Jun 29, 23:29 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$2.80Jun 26, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$4.95Jun 26, 11:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?$5.89Jun 24, 21:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026?$0.35Jun 24, 16:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026?$0.35Jun 24, 16:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026?$0.35Jun 24, 16:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $3.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 09:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 15:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.