Imperfect-Ashtray
0xc83b4a3ff13beab5436b2ebdfb2375941cea6c54
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
4
Open notional
$159.97
Total PnL
$-17.00
Realised
$-1.85
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
177 shares @ 63.8¢·now 52.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$92.11
$-20.89
- NO
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?
42 shares @ 86.3¢·now 96.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$40.64
$4.10
- YES
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22?
24 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$23.78
$4.28
- YES
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
15 shares @ 40.7¢·now 23.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.43
$-2.64
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNo-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?$36.74May 27, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?$110.00May 27, 13:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?$145.45May 17, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?$81.80May 13, 15:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?$83.08May 12, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?$82.05May 12, 10:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?$81.08May 11, 00:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22?$0.00May 3, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?$3.00May 3, 10:58 UTC
- TRADESELLCuban regime falls in 2026?$2.99Apr 27, 17:15 UTC
- TRADESELLCuban regime falls in 2026?$1.00Apr 26, 10:59 UTC
- REDEEMNetanyahu out by March 31?$0.00Apr 22, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?$77.92Apr 22, 10:43 UTC
- REDEEMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?$77.92Apr 22, 10:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?$51.85Apr 20, 23:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?$29.04Apr 20, 23:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$22.81Apr 20, 23:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?$22.95Apr 20, 22:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Partido Popular (PP) win the Andalusia regional election?$22.82Apr 20, 22:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Partido Popular (PP) win the Andalusia regional election?$9.95Apr 20, 14:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $24.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 29, 19:37 UTC
- Last active
- May 27, 13:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.