Afraid-Aluminium
0xc8a2608f430a9eaff02dceebbb92a0eeab02c9b6
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$178.88
Total PnL
$-42.00
Realised
$-2.05
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will G2 Make Finals at MSI 2026
50 shares @ 95.6¢·now 84.9¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$42.45
$-5.35
- YES
FDA approves Viatris' low-dose estrogen weekly patch?
50 shares @ 82.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$33.25
$-7.75
- YES
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?
50 shares @ 76.0¢·now 65.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$32.50
$-5.50
- YES
Saturn FDV above $50M one day after launch
50 shares @ 75.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$27.25
$-10.25
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?
50 shares @ 42.0¢·now 29.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$14.46
$-6.48
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?
50 shares @ 24.0¢·now 20.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$10.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title?
9 shares @ 58.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$4.66
$-0.30
- YES
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?
50 shares @ 7.6¢·now 6.3¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$3.17
$-0.63
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the CT-01 House seat?
50 shares @ 6.8¢·now 6.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.02
$-0.38
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 10?
3 shares @ 68.0¢·now 70.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$2.36
$0.07
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 10?$1.70Jul 8, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill G2 Make Finals at MSI 2026$47.80Jul 8, 07:34 UTC
- TRADESELLKash Patel out by December 31?$29.00Jul 8, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYKash Patel out by December 31?$30.00Jul 8, 07:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 10?$31.40Jul 8, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 10?$33.00Jul 8, 07:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?$5.30Jul 8, 07:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYSaturn FDV above $50M one day after launch$37.50Jul 8, 07:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?$46.02Jul 8, 06:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?$46.05Jul 8, 06:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Concrete launch a token by June 30, 2027?$29.14Jul 8, 06:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Concrete launch a token by June 30, 2027?$32.00Jul 8, 06:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Concrete launch a token by December 31, 2026?$25.11Jul 8, 06:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 10?$7.77Jul 8, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 10?$7.94Jul 8, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Concrete launch a token by December 31, 2026?$27.50Jul 8, 06:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand?$45.56Jul 8, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand?$46.50Jul 8, 06:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill PPI YoY be 6.3% in June?$36.99Jul 8, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYFDA approves Viatris' low-dose estrogen weekly patch?$41.00Jul 8, 06:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $23.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 03:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 8, 08:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.