Humble-Chicken
0xc935a3b3742358a323c6777c51e7cc56f38b74cf
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$401.26
Total PnL
$7.20
Realised
$21.49
Win rate
83%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
115 shares @ 76.2¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$82.22
$-5.37
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
35 shares @ 64.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.27
$7.87
- YES
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
100 shares @ 12.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.50
$11.50
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
25 shares @ 89.0¢·now 92.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$23.19
$0.94
- NO
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
35 shares @ 48.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$21.18
$4.38
- NO
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?
30 shares @ 69.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$17.85
$-2.85
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
20 shares @ 85.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$17.10
$0.10
- NO
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 31?
20 shares @ 81.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$16.70
$0.50
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
25 shares @ 66.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$16.63
$0.13
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 65.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$16.30
$3.30
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?$4.49Jul 21, 20:58 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$7.30Jul 21, 15:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$10.34Jul 21, 14:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$1.05Jul 21, 05:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$2.93Jul 21, 05:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$12.30Jul 21, 05:29 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYTampere: Gauthier Onclin vs Duje Ajdukovic AND Segovia: Yi Zhou vs Michael Geerts$1.00Jul 20, 14:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?$19.48Jul 20, 12:43 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$4.91Jul 20, 11:39 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$6.09Jul 20, 11:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$7.20Jul 20, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$9.80Jul 20, 07:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 20, 05:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$13.00Jul 19, 22:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$18.45Jul 19, 16:06 UTC
- TRADESELLSerbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027?$5.95Jul 19, 12:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYSerbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027?$5.95Jul 19, 10:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $9.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.