Rundown-Taxicab
0xca1e480969a9862e38881bfaa19de019f78675ed
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$36.1K
Total PnL
$-795.62
Realised
$305.05
Win rate
100%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
33250 shares @ 50.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$26.6K
$10.0K
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
33250 shares @ 50.0¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$6.7K
$-10.0K
- NO
GTA VI released before June 2026?
1000 shares @ 98.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.0K
$13.00
- NO
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
2311 shares @ 58.1¢·now 29.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$681.76
$-660.42
- NO
Anthropic CEO arrested?
500 shares @ 95.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$500.01
$24.40
- NO
Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan?
377 shares @ 40.7¢·now 62.5¢·exp Dec 18, 2026$235.84
$82.25
- YES
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
200 shares @ 39.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$200.00
$122.00
- NO
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
100 shares @ 69.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Nov 19, 2026$89.00
$20.00
- NO
Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine?
100 shares @ 53.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Dec 18, 2026$66.50
$13.50
- YES
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?
134 shares @ 67.5¢·now 26.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$35.59
$-55.12
Recent activity
- YIELD$2.96Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$2.96Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$2.96Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$2.96Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$2.96Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$2.96Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$2.96Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$2.96Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$2.96Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$2.96Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$2.96Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$2.96Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$2.96Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$2.96Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$2.96Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$2.96Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$2.96Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$2.96Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$2.96Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$2.96Jul 9, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.