Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan?
Probability
41¢
1h
+10.5pp
24h
-10.0pp
24h Vol
$45.53
Liquidity
$1.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5677.1h
- 10:51SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5677h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 41¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.5pp
to 39¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.5pp
to 39¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.0pp
to 30¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.0pp
to 38¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -34.0pp
to 28¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.0pp
to 39¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.5pp
to 32¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.5pp
to 29¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.0pp
to 28¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.5pp
to 37¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.0pp
to 37¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -31.0pp
to 31¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 51¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 51¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 51¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 52¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 52¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 52¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 52¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Avengers: Doomsday is a Marvel film scheduled to release on December, 18, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor playing the listed character appears in Avengers: Doomsday. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve upon announcement of casting, regardless of if the film is delayed, cancelled, or otherwise fails to be released. If no casting is announced, this market will resolve upon footage of the domestic theatrical cut of the film. If multiple people are cast for the same role, the listed individual being among the cast list for the relevant character will be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. If no casting is announced and Avengers: Doomsday is definitively cancelled or fails to be released by June 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on official announcements from Marvel or Warner Bros., the domestic theatrical cut of Avengers: Doomsday, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 18, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (21.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).