Stale-Armoire
0xca1f9b9d67d947c8007d9814e8f9d6045cccd282
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.0K
Total PnL
$-712.41
Realised
$100.71
Win rate
73%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
250 shares @ 86.4¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$236.25
$20.35
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
183 shares @ 72.3¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$140.13
$7.66
- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
864 shares @ 22.8¢·now 14.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$127.40
$-69.57
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 28?
119 shares @ 73.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$118.71
$31.30
- NO
Blue tsunami in 2026?
184 shares @ 51.9¢·now 55.5¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$102.20
$6.63
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
155 shares @ 73.0¢·now 65.8¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$101.91
$-11.31
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 28?
100 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$99.95
$13.95
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
147 shares @ 3.1¢·now 63.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$93.43
$88.83
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 29?
100 shares @ 63.6¢·now 83.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$83.00
$19.40
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
180 shares @ 46.3¢·now 44.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$80.11
$-3.31
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Rodrigo Pacheco win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?$9.60Jul 29, 01:58 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Jeddah on July 29?$0.00Jul 29, 01:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on July 29?$17.32Jul 29, 01:50 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 29?$40.00Jul 29, 01:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 29?$15.19Jul 29, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 29?$15.19Jul 29, 01:40 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 29?$15.00Jul 29, 01:26 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 42°C or higher on July 30?$20.00Jul 29, 01:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 30?$17.32Jul 29, 01:24 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Los Angeles on July 29?$0.00Jul 29, 01:15 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Jeddah on July 30?$0.00Jul 29, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on July 30?$14.60Jul 29, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on July 30?$14.60Jul 29, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 29?$8.65Jul 29, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 29?$11.84Jul 29, 01:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 29?$38.68Jul 29, 00:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 29?$12.12Jul 29, 00:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 29?$1.00Jul 29, 00:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%?$1.00Jul 29, 00:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%?$1.00Jul 29, 00:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $9.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 00:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 01:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.