Elegant-Ascot
0xca88d64f331060ea470e473b687b26337facefb2
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$23.6K
Total PnL
$1.9K
Realised
$52.10
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
4837 shares @ 84.7¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.8K
$674.65
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?
4920 shares @ 48.8¢·now 87.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.3K
$1.9K
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
3904 shares @ 94.3¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.9K
$205.34
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
3200 shares @ 74.6¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.4K
$28.53
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?
2384 shares @ 83.9¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.4K
$371.90
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
2374 shares @ 85.7¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.4K
$330.89
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
1731 shares @ 89.4¢·now 98.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.7K
$155.36
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?
1027 shares @ 91.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.0K
$88.84
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3229 shares @ 16.1¢·now 19.4¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$628.04
$108.17
- YES
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3229 shares @ 6.0¢·now 5.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$169.52
$-24.22
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.07Jun 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jun 24, 00:12 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$2.40Jun 24, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.0KJun 23, 11:31 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$995.00Jun 23, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?$1.8KJun 23, 07:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?$662.67Jun 23, 07:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?$1.8KJun 23, 07:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?$150.08Jun 23, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$405.20Jun 23, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$506.50Jun 23, 02:55 UTC
- REDEEMFrance leading at halftime?$666.89Jun 23, 01:08 UTC
- REDEEMFrance to score first vs. Iraq?$574.71Jun 23, 01:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jun 23, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance to score first vs. Iraq?$501.95Jun 22, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance leading at halftime?$503.75Jun 22, 11:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jun 22, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYTunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners$203.01Jun 21, 04:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?$1.4KJun 21, 02:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?$1.3KJun 21, 01:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $510.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 15, 17:39 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 25, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.