Hard-To-Find-Pleat
0xcad0ce5f7aa60a1e3c4ce2b36cb2f91cf03ea72f
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
34
Open notional
$6.51
Total PnL
$-86.69
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
2 shares @ 85.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.19
$0.19
- NO
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 91.0¢·now 99.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.18
$0.18
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
38 shares @ 13.0¢·now 3.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.48
$-3.52
- YES
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.30
$-1.70
- YES
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
3 shares @ 35.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.23
$-0.77
- YES
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
3 shares @ 30.0¢·now 3.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.11
$-0.89
- YES
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
11 shares @ 18.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.03
$-1.97
- YES
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?
967 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?
478 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?
450 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-6.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill "Scott" or "Bessent" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$0.10Jan 10, 11:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Tariff" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$1.00Jan 8, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Scott" or "Bessent" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$6.00Jan 8, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$2.00Dec 31, 02:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$5.00Dec 31, 02:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$2.00Dec 31, 02:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?$5.00Dec 31, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$1.00Dec 31, 02:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$1.00Dec 31, 02:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?$2.00Dec 31, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?$2.00Dec 31, 02:02 UTC
- TRADESELLOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?$26.78Dec 31, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?$1.00Nov 22, 13:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?$1.10Nov 18, 19:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the top AI model on December 31?$3.00Nov 5, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYNuclear weapon detonation in 2025?$2.00Nov 5, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Turkey military clash in 2025?$1.00Nov 3, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$1.00Nov 3, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?$1.00Nov 1, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the top AI model on December 31?$1.00Nov 1, 16:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $2.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 28, 23:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 10, 11:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".