Mellow-Steppingstone
0xcadd482055d15d3b075874ae55018c5f869bc7e6
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$339.56
Total PnL
$-2.7K
Realised
$280.40
Win rate
81%
58 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
205 shares @ 55.9¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$203.05
$88.50
- NO
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?
45 shares @ 85.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$41.17
$2.92
- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
45 shares @ 81.8¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$36.40
$-0.80
- NO
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?
30 shares @ 85.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$25.35
$-0.15
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
20 shares @ 56.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$11.30
$0.10
- NO
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
10 shares @ 53.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.65
$0.35
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
6 shares @ 80.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.10
$0.38
- YES
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
5 shares @ 87.0¢·now 84.7¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$4.27
$-0.12
- NO
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
10 shares @ 34.0¢·now 37.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.70
$0.30
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 46.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.55
$-1.05
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:20 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$162.20Jul 7, 15:27 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
81/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
81% win rate over 58 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
58 closed markets, 81% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 01:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 58 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.