Youthful-Tug
0xcb59ea1babf3b26ea50088057e427ab0ed8f0a22
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$30.9K
Total PnL
$-4.5K
Realised
$766.55
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?
12500 shares @ 91.6¢·now 95.5¢·exp Nov 2, 2026$11.9K
$493.75
- NO
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
10000 shares @ 84.3¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$8.2K
$-176.72
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
6762 shares @ 84.1¢·now 83.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.6K
$-45.87
- YES
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
1877 shares @ 98.2¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.8K
$5.91
- YES
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?
1295 shares @ 81.3¢·now 85.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.1K
$47.74
- YES
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?
529 shares @ 98.8¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$523.05
$0.83
- NO
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
500 shares @ 93.3¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$477.50
$11.00
- YES
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
295 shares @ 81.7¢·now 80.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$236.61
$-4.28
- YES
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?
206 shares @ 91.0¢·now 92.8¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$190.98
$3.81
- YES
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
27788 shares @ 20.6¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$111.15
$-5.6K
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Graham Platner drop out by July 17?$187.17Jul 6, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$98.10Jul 6, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$840.00Jul 6, 23:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Graham Platner drop out by July 6?$82.00Jul 6, 23:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$3.4KJul 6, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$614.01Jul 6, 22:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$181.02Jul 6, 22:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$844.03Jul 6, 22:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$1.1KJul 6, 22:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$20.80Jul 6, 22:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$5.67Jul 6, 22:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$11.88Jul 6, 22:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$129.68Jul 6, 22:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$665.53Jul 6, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$89.20Jul 6, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$22.78Jul 6, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$468.00Jul 6, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$10.92Jul 6, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$1.1KJul 6, 22:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Portugal win on 2026-07-06?$63.2KJul 6, 21:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$73.3K
Trades
1
Buy share
54%
Window
May 28, 01:20 UTC → Jul 6, 21:05 UTC
- BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$14.5K@100¢Jun 17, 18:37 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
12/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$14.5K
1 trades
Buy share
54%
Sample
limited
5 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?
$25.0K · 34% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $2.3K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 00:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 6, 23:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.