Deserted-Papaya
0xcb88529b180ff94e8cf8c85358d3776a687a6b99
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$208.59
Total PnL
$-216.56
Realised
$12.81
Win rate
43%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- NO
Will Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?
114 shares @ 44.0¢·now 97.8¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$111.49
$61.33
- NO
Over $600M raised on Coinbase in 2026?
99 shares @ 29.0¢·now 58.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$57.42
$28.71
- NO
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $26B?
24 shares @ 71.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$22.20
$5.16
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
21 shares @ 55.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.49
$2.16
- NO
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
2 shares @ 96.6¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.93
$-0.00
- NO
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 93.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.00
$0.06
- YES
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
3 shares @ 24.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$0.92
$0.20
- YES
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
4 shares @ 3.8¢·now 3.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.13
$-0.01
- YES
Will Tempo launch a token by March 31, 2026?
342 shares @ 21.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-74.90
- YES
Will JA21 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?
318 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-111.30
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?$1.00May 20, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lighter dip to $1 before 2027?$1.00May 20, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?$3.00May 20, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMAztec FDV above $2B one day after launch?$4.00May 20, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?$11.00May 20, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill FA win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?$47.86May 20, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Day Care" or "Daycare" this week? (January 11)$78.00May 20, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?$130.00May 20, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMOver $22M committed to the Space public sale?$838.00May 20, 06:59 UTC
- TRADESELLKraken IPO closing market cap above $26B?$8.45Apr 21, 04:52 UTC
- TRADESELLVentuals FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?$4.53Apr 21, 04:35 UTC
- TRADESELLVentuals FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?$7.31Apr 21, 04:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?$20.77Feb 8, 19:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?$254.20Feb 8, 18:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs?$7.00Feb 8, 17:50 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$17.01Feb 8, 15:55 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$7.98Feb 8, 15:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$7.98Feb 8, 15:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$7.98Feb 8, 15:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$8.40Feb 8, 15:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $117.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 10, 08:52 UTC
- Last active
- May 20, 06:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.