Back-Roast
0xcc237489b9ba9be2e26242af5914f07696838bc9
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$74.76
Total PnL
$-586.69
Realised
$0.04
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- NO
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
238 shares @ 44.4¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$32.14
$-73.61
- YES
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026?
150 shares @ 70.0¢·now 11.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$16.50
$-88.50
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
20 shares @ 75.0¢·now 63.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$12.60
$-2.40
- NO
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
50 shares @ 30.0¢·now 18.4¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$9.18
$-5.82
- YES
Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?
61 shares @ 23.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.34
$-10.62
- YES
Will Tim Cyr win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?
200 shares @ 12.5¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$1.00
$-24.00
- YES
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on April 24?
300 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-111.00
- NO
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?
300 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-8.10
- NO
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
250 shares @ 10.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-27.00
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?
200 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.10
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election?$18.60Jul 14, 08:39 UTC
- REWARD$2.05Jul 12, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$53.34Jul 11, 17:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$6.21Jul 11, 15:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$47.00Jul 11, 14:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election?$18.44Jul 11, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 31?$15.00Jul 11, 12:20 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.48Jul 11, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$1.34Jul 11, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$43.00Jul 10, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$144.00Jul 10, 14:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$56.00Jul 10, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$57.00Jul 10, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$58.00Jul 10, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$44.50Jul 10, 09:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?$0.83Jul 8, 08:47 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.04Jul 8, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 8?$12.52Jul 8, 00:09 UTC
- REWARD$6.01Jul 8, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 8?$2.16Jul 7, 13:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $26.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 14:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 08:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.