0xcd6c653ff9d56155a30a0c4b5bc67c69388271b2
0xcd6c653ff9d56155a30a0c4b5bc67c69388271b2
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
96
Open notional
$43.51
Total PnL
$-13.04
Realised
$27.68
Win rate
32%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 96- NO
Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?
18 shares @ 6.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$17.64
$16.58
- NO
Will Stormers win?
15 shares @ 7.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$15.00
$13.95
- NO
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?
11 shares @ 8.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$10.87
$10.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 30?
202 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.04
- NO
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 1?
91 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.02
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?
51 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
- NO
Will Napoli finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?
51 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
- NO
Will New York Knicks advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?
51 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
- NO
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?
51 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
- NO
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?
51 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?$0.00Jul 27, 18:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Stormers win?$0.00Jul 27, 18:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?$0.00Jul 27, 18:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$0.43Jun 1, 03:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Aaron Ford win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary election?$0.24May 31, 19:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$0.22May 31, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Aaron Ford win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary election?$0.01May 30, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$0.90May 30, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?$0.25May 30, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Aaron Ford win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary election?$0.60May 30, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Aaron Ford win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary election?$0.40May 30, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neymar play in the World Cup?$1.01May 30, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Christina Bohannan be the Democratic Nominee for IA-01?$0.10May 30, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?$1.01May 30, 14:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$1.01May 30, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?$0.87May 30, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.06May 30, 13:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ashley Hinson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa?$0.00May 30, 12:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time?$0.10May 30, 12:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$0.12May 30, 12:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
32% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
31 closed markets, 32% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $0.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 26, 04:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 18:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.