Mortified-Progression
0xce0c88ca96bdba2791c97665035b857488b57048
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$106.75
Total PnL
$-284.45
Realised
$-3.83
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- NO
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?
84 shares @ 59.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$84.01
$34.01
- NO
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
10 shares @ 49.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$10.20
$5.20
- NO
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?
8 shares @ 65.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$7.69
$2.69
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
6 shares @ 79.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.84
$-0.16
- YES
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
4753 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-9.51
- YES
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
3021 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-9.06
- YES
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?
1203 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-7.02
- YES
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?
320 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.78
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYLoL: French Flair vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - LFL Invitational Playoffs$36.00Mar 4, 14:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?$31.82Mar 4, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs$60.00Mar 4, 13:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$61.43Mar 4, 13:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?$5.13Mar 4, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner$49.00Mar 4, 10:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?$18.72Mar 4, 10:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?$31.22Mar 4, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner$20.00Mar 4, 09:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winner$100.00Mar 3, 10:02 UTC
- TRADESELLLoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winner$104.37Mar 3, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winner$100.00Mar 3, 09:24 UTC
- TRADESELLLoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winner$8.70Mar 3, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winner$50.00Mar 3, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?$5.00Mar 3, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?$5.00Mar 3, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$5.00Mar 3, 01:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran strike Saudi Arabia in March?$4.82Mar 3, 00:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$1.00Mar 2, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Jack Pinnington Jones$106.63Mar 2, 20:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $20.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 2, 12:37 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 4, 14:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.