Unlined-Emergent
0xce18b839a6df3486c93644807c2e8b834073abfb
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$6.45
Total PnL
$-2.6K
Realised
$-5.96
Win rate
0%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- NO
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27?
2 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$1.97
$0.43
- YES
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03?
2 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$1.89
$0.57
- ATLANTA BRAVES
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
2 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$1.58
$0.46
- NO
Will Venezuela become 51st state?
1 shares @ 96.4¢·now 97.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- YES
Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
639 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-319.35
- YES
Zelensky resigns in 2025?
638 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-319.02
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
637 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-318.70
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
637 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-318.35
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
636 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-318.00
- YES
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
636 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-317.75
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWashington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves$1.14Jul 31, 00:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYT20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire$1.09Jun 5, 08:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Italy win on 2026-06-03?$1.33Jun 3, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYRoland Garros ATP (Doubles): Balaji/Demoliner vs Helioevaara/Patten$1.20Jun 2, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27?$1.55May 27, 03:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?$1.01May 27, 03:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?$1.10May 27, 03:43 UTC
- REDEEMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?$1.27May 27, 03:43 UTC
- REDEEMBarcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian Ofner$1.17Apr 25, 08:52 UTC
- REDEEMWuning 2: Jie Cui vs Mikhail Kukushkin$1.27Apr 25, 08:52 UTC
- REDEEMRaptors vs. Cavaliers$1.32Apr 25, 08:52 UTC
- REDEEMDota 2: Team Nemesis vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs$1.47Apr 25, 08:52 UTC
- REDEEMHeat vs. Hornets$1.48Apr 25, 08:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?$1.91Apr 25, 08:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?$2.01Apr 25, 08:52 UTC
- REDEEMBarcelona Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Otto Virtanen$2.07Apr 25, 08:52 UTC
- REDEEMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?$2.16Apr 25, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have closed its next funding round by June 30, 2026?$1.55Apr 25, 08:42 UTC
- REDEEMSan Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals$1.3KApr 25, 08:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYSan Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals$662.00Apr 18, 18:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $26.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 8, 13:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 00:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.