Classic-Parallelogram
0xce4d7123b294829c505302800fc7bc0590b3d0e2
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$18.9K
Total PnL
$-572.35
Realised
$-244.54
Win rate
50%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Lois Frankel be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?
685 shares @ 90.9¢·now 93.8¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$642.03
$19.32
- NO
Will Gavin Solomon advance from the AK-AL primary election?
600 shares @ 76.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$593.70
$137.70
- NO
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
620 shares @ 89.1¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$567.30
$14.70
- NO
Will Oliver Adams Larkin be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?
530 shares @ 94.5¢·now 97.7¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$517.59
$16.66
- NO
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in July?
500 shares @ 93.7¢·now 93.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$468.75
$0.31
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
500 shares @ 82.6¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$452.50
$39.50
- YES
Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?
350 shares @ 82.3¢·now 96.7¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$337.95
$50.06
- YES
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?
339 shares @ 62.2¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$313.42
$102.79
- NO
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
350 shares @ 87.4¢·now 87.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$306.25
$0.25
- NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
300 shares @ 95.8¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$298.02
$10.99
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in July?$0.12Jul 28, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in July?$0.20Jul 28, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?$0.16Jul 28, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shevrin Jones be the FL-24 Democratic nominee?$206.84Jul 28, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kendrick Meek Jr. be the FL-24 Democratic nominee?$37.04Jul 28, 10:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oliver Gilbert be the FL-24 Democratic nominee?$133.72Jul 28, 10:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Graham Platner be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$0.00Jul 28, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 be at least 6%?$46.00Jul 28, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 be at least 5%?$46.00Jul 28, 01:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 be at least 5%?$93.00Jul 28, 01:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$5.15Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?$60.81Jul 27, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill HBO Max win the most Emmys?$8.06Jul 27, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill HBO Max win the most Emmys?$0.05Jul 27, 16:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill HBO Max win the most Emmys?$0.03Jul 27, 16:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill HBO Max win the most Emmys?$0.03Jul 27, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill HBO Max win the most Emmys?$0.05Jul 27, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill HBO Max win the most Emmys?$0.01Jul 27, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill HBO Max win the most Emmys?$0.01Jul 27, 15:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $19.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 08:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 15:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.