Grouchy-Adjustment
0xcfd98f6333af3402c05662adf85dec530232c4cd
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
51
Open notional
$24.20
Total PnL
$-13.74
Realised
$10.53
Win rate
94%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 51- YES
Will Taylor Swift be the top artist in the US for 2026?
39 shares @ 3.5¢·now 4.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.86
$0.50
- YES
Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
94 shares @ 1.6¢·now 1.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.73
$0.23
- YES
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 300m and 350m by August 31?
70 shares @ 1.9¢·now 2.2¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.54
$0.21
- YES
Yevhen Khmara appointed as Ukrainian Minister of Defence by July 31?
46 shares @ 3.2¢·now 3.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.43
$-0.05
- YES
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 200m?
65 shares @ 2.2¢·now 2.1¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$1.36
$-0.06
- YES
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
100 shares @ 1.5¢·now 1.3¢·exp Oct 24, 2027$1.30
$-0.20
- YES
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?
70 shares @ 1.9¢·now 1.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$1.29
$-0.04
- YES
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?
20 shares @ 6.1¢·now 6.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.25
$0.03
- YES
Will Sabrina Ionescu have the highest points per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?
94 shares @ 1.6¢·now 1.3¢·exp Sep 24, 2026$1.22
$-0.28
- YES
Andrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?
35 shares @ 3.8¢·now 3.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.14
$-0.19
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 200m?$1.43Jul 23, 20:53 UTC
- TRADESELLBank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.73Jul 23, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?$1.41Jul 23, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?$0.36Jul 23, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?$0.19Jul 23, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?$0.36Jul 23, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 24, 2026?$2.34Jul 23, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYYevhen Khmara appointed as Ukrainian Minister of Defence by July 31?$1.48Jul 23, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?$0.32Jul 23, 18:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?$0.02Jul 23, 18:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?$0.48Jul 23, 18:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodri join Barcelona?$2.40Jul 23, 17:22 UTC
- TRADESELLBank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.88Jul 23, 17:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on July 23?$0.50Jul 23, 17:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodri join Barcelona?$0.18Jul 23, 17:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus model be released on July 28, 2026?$2.00Jul 23, 16:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?$0.10Jul 23, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?$0.20Jul 23, 15:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on July 24?$0.59Jul 23, 15:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?$0.31Jul 23, 15:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
94% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $0.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 11:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 20:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.