Suspicious-Bait
0xcfda7664de580d168ea45672b3c600b303e80fb3
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$334.19
Total PnL
$5.49
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
75 shares @ 81.5¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$63.38
$2.25
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
60 shares @ 90.0¢·now 97.2¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$58.29
$4.29
- NO
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
50 shares @ 81.4¢·now 81.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$40.63
$-0.19
- NO
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
40 shares @ 90.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$36.20
$0.20
- NO
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?
56 shares @ 72.7¢·now 63.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$35.28
$-5.44
- NO
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?
35 shares @ 54.4¢·now 70.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$24.50
$5.44
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
38 shares @ 80.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$23.75
$-6.65
- NO
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
30 shares @ 60.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$19.35
$1.35
- NO
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
22 shares @ 44.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$14.19
$4.51
- YES
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
50 shares @ 29.5¢·now 26.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$13.03
$-1.72
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$14.50Jul 23, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$4.56Jul 23, 13:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$20.00Jul 23, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$2.34Jul 22, 08:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$4.14Jul 22, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?$20.96Jul 22, 06:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?$27.95Jul 22, 06:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$30.34Jul 21, 20:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$30.00Jul 21, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$30.40Jul 21, 08:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$9.95Jul 21, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?$13.99Jul 21, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?$6.22Jul 21, 08:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$14.67Jul 21, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$18.99Jul 21, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$20.34Jul 21, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$20.70Jul 21, 07:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$5.82Jul 21, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$4.15Jul 21, 06:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?$5.17Jul 21, 06:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $15.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 04:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 14:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.