Melodic-Nightlight
0xd03cf97f1e631608883334b509fb57ee254068cf
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$2.4K
Total PnL
$-5.8K
Realised
$337.38
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
1697 shares @ 64.8¢·now 88.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.5K
$405.60
- YES
Fed rate hike in 2026?
345 shares @ 52.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$215.81
$36.26
- YES
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
1245 shares @ 29.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$168.06
$-193.49
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
1637 shares @ 18.3¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$139.18
$-160.82
- YES
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
476 shares @ 39.9¢·now 18.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$85.62
$-104.38
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
1529 shares @ 14.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$84.11
$-129.89
- YES
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1724 shares @ 2.9¢·now 3.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$52.59
$2.59
- YES
Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?
224 shares @ 54.0¢·now 21.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$47.09
$-73.99
- YES
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
299 shares @ 22.7¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$34.40
$-33.45
- YES
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
111 shares @ 44.1¢·now 28.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$31.07
$-17.82
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?$1.2KJul 20, 16:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $52.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 00:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.