Short-Cloves
0xd104818fcf10456f12cf87356bde14e79c4d7c02
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$908.91
Total PnL
$-6.2K
Realised
$437.43
Win rate
18%
139 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?
130 shares @ 65.3¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$86.64
$1.52
- YES
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?
329 shares @ 7.6¢·now 14.8¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$48.68
$23.68
- YES
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
96 shares @ 25.9¢·now 48.3¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$46.54
$21.54
- NO
Over $400M raised on Coinbase in 2026?
106 shares @ 55.5¢·now 41.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$43.63
$-15.37
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in August?
57 shares @ 44.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$36.65
$11.65
- NO
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
51 shares @ 59.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$36.61
$6.61
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
61 shares @ 45.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$34.64
$7.05
- NO
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?
77 shares @ 45.6¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$34.15
$-0.85
- YES
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?
48 shares @ 51.1¢·now 69.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.32
$8.65
- YES
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
182 shares @ 27.5¢·now 17.3¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$31.50
$-18.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill TEAM VISION Win The International 2026?$20.73Aug 11, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Team Yandex Win The International 2026?$15.60Aug 11, 05:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYJeff Bezos Announced as New Liverpool Owner in 2026?$20.71Aug 11, 05:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?$25.60Aug 11, 05:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin August 11-17?$15.75Aug 10, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?$20.00Aug 10, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$25.00Aug 10, 18:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill STRC hit $100 by December 31?$19.23Aug 10, 18:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?$50.80Aug 10, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexander Zverev Win the Cincinnati Open?$25.67Aug 10, 14:23 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$40.43Aug 10, 10:41 UTC
- TRADESELLUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?$30.32Aug 10, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?$25.52Aug 9, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?$19.49Aug 9, 15:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?$13.24Aug 9, 15:25 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$52.70Aug 9, 15:25 UTC
- TRADESELLIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?$18.99Aug 9, 15:24 UTC
- TRADESELLIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?$11.10Aug 9, 15:22 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?$60.56Aug 9, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?$30.00Aug 8, 18:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
61/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
18% win rate over 139 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
139 closed markets, 18% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $24.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 6, 16:45 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 05:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 139 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.