Heavy-Gumshoe
0xd1248eda74f3c9c697d6aa57ab9bbe07fb5c85a6
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
22
Open notional
$67.97
Total PnL
$-46.77
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- NO
Kash Patel out by December 31?
65 shares @ 22.9¢·now 58.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.98
$22.98
- YES
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
142 shares @ 14.1¢·now 12.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.79
$-2.21
- YES
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
43 shares @ 23.1¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.27
$-3.73
- YES
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
71 shares @ 7.0¢·now 3.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.57
$-2.43
- YES
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
51 shares @ 9.8¢·now 2.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.20
$-3.80
- NO
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement?
100 shares @ 5.0¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$1.15
$-3.85
- YES
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the July interest rate announcement?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.62
$-0.38
- YES
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement?
62 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.28
$-4.72
- YES
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement?
77 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.12
$-1.88
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?$0.00Jun 23, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement?$5.24Jun 21, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alberta vote for independence in 2026?$3.00Jun 21, 19:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alberta vote for independence in 2026?$10.00Jun 21, 19:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?$20.00Jun 2, 04:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$0.00May 29, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$5.30May 24, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$5.30May 24, 16:06 UTC
- REDEEMThe American Rodeo Championship: Rocker Steiner Repeat?$19.23May 24, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026?$5.18May 24, 03:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rocker Steiner win Bareback Riding at The American Rodeo 2026 Championship Weekend?$20.83May 24, 01:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Stetson Wright win Bull Riding at The American Rodeo 2026 Championship Weekend?$27.78May 24, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alberta vote for independence in 2026?$7.00May 22, 12:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$0.00May 18, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$0.53May 18, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$1.05May 18, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$1.05May 18, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$5.24May 18, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sam Petersen win Bareback Riding at The American Rodeo 2026 Championship Weekend?$2.06May 14, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill T.J. Gray win Bull Riding at The American Rodeo 2026 Championship Weekend?$2.05May 14, 03:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $3.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 2, 01:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 01:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.