Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Probability
27¢
1h
-0.6pp
24h
-47.4pp
24h Vol
$54.2K
Liquidity
$21.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-54.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1577.7h
- 06:20SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1578h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -53.6pp
to 26¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -52.3pp
to 27¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -48.7pp
to 30¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -48.9pp
to 30¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -49.1pp
to 31¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -47.5pp
to 31¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -52.0pp
to 28¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -56.5pp
to 24¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -53.3pp
to 28¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -53.8pp
to 27¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.4pp
to 63¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.4pp
to 63¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 66¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.2pp
to 75¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.1pp
to 72¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.7pp
to 73¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.7pp
to 73¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 76¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 77¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.1pp
to 77¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.8pp
to 76¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.7pp
to 74¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 65¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 74¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 77¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.3pp
to 65¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.6pp
to 78¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.1pp
to 78¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not qualify as diplomatic meetings. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating in negotiations at the meeting. If the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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