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GeopoliticsExpires Jun 30, 2026

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Probability

27¢

1h

-0.6pp

24h

-47.4pp

24h Vol

$54.2K

Liquidity

$21.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

-54.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 07:00Apr 25, 2026, 06:20
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1577.7h

    LOW
  • 06:20Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 1578h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -53.6pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -52.3pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -48.7pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -48.9pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -49.1pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability down -47.5pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability down -52.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -56.5pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -53.3pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -53.8pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -18.4pp

    to 63¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability down -19.4pp

    to 63¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -16.5pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -5.2pp

    to 75¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability down -8.1pp

    to 72¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -6.7pp

    to 73¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -23.7pp

    to 73¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -20.0pp

    to 76¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -15.0pp

    to 77¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.1pp

    to 77¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -19.8pp

    to 76¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -10.7pp

    to 74¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 65¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 74¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.3pp

    to 77¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.3pp

    to 65¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 11.6pp

    to 78¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 14.1pp

    to 78¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not qualify as diplomatic meetings. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating in negotiations at the meeting. If the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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