0xd17aa8b0dc8e91d7f2ff4d1cde7d5ddcd6ae5e27
0xd17aa8b0dc8e91d7f2ff4d1cde7d5ddcd6ae5e27
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
47
Open notional
$156.46
Total PnL
$-143.27
Realised
$-48.69
Win rate
29%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 47- YES
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
20 shares @ 86.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$18.70
$1.50
- YES
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
40 shares @ 16.7¢·now 46.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$18.44
$11.76
- YES
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?
20 shares @ 77.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$14.20
$-1.20
- YES
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?
21 shares @ 62.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jan 16, 2027$13.34
$0.32
- YES
Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?
44 shares @ 28.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$11.53
$-0.65
- YES
Will Bakir Izetbegović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?
21 shares @ 53.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$10.50
$-0.63
- YES
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?
10 shares @ 72.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$10.00
$2.80
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 85.0¢·now 96.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.44
$1.10
- YES
Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?
21 shares @ 35.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$8.51
$1.16
- YES
Will Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
21 shares @ 32.0¢·now 31.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$6.51
$-0.21
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$6.90Jul 27, 00:03 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET$0.03Jul 25, 17:29 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$6.63Jul 24, 09:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$3.54Jul 17, 00:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$6.15Jul 16, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$3.42Jul 16, 00:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $7.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 02:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.