Well-Off-Aim
0xd245304a12ba711de764a45cd0912aee5ad52318
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$-265.90
Realised
$631.87
Win rate
66%
122 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
274 shares @ 54.3¢·now 70.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$193.30
$44.35
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
280 shares @ 38.1¢·now 68.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$191.57
$84.87
- NO
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
118 shares @ 96.8¢·now 98.9¢·exp May 31, 2026$116.45
$2.45
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
96 shares @ 65.9¢·now 86.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$83.15
$19.58
- NO
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
357 shares @ 19.5¢·now 23.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$83.03
$13.44
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
100 shares @ 80.5¢·now 76.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$76.41
$-4.22
- NO
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
107 shares @ 42.7¢·now 69.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$74.23
$28.61
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
93 shares @ 57.4¢·now 38.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$35.62
$-17.48
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
37 shares @ 95.8¢·now 96.2¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$35.32
$0.14
- YES
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?
736 shares @ 4.8¢·now 4.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$29.80
$-5.64
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$0.80Jul 29, 13:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$2.32Jul 29, 13:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$8.31Jul 29, 13:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$0.13Jul 29, 09:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$2.55Jul 29, 09:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$1.36Jul 29, 09:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$6.11Jul 29, 09:14 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?$0.66Jul 28, 17:07 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?$1.95Jul 28, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?$0.45Jul 28, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?$0.22Jul 28, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$1.72Jul 28, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?$0.77Jul 28, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?$1.55Jul 28, 12:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$1.05Jul 28, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$1.05Jul 28, 03:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$0.06Jul 28, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$0.03Jul 28, 02:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$0.72Jul 28, 02:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.67Jul 27, 21:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
66% win rate over 122 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
122 closed markets, 66% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 14:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 13:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 122 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.