Grimy-Antiquity
0xd3667c0b7bf30cf5a7a5568c862144f9979188f5
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
56
Open notional
$37.56
Total PnL
$-345.12
Realised
$10.70
Win rate
50%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 56- YES
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
67 shares @ 15.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.67
$-4.33
- YES
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $3.00 on December 31, 2026?
32 shares @ 15.8¢·now 16.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.30
$0.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 22?
12 shares @ 41.0¢·now 42.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$5.12
$0.12
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
260 shares @ 2.5¢·now 1.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.68
$-1.82
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?
12 shares @ 40.5¢·now 35.5¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$4.39
$-0.61
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
932 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.26
$-4.74
- YES
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
35 shares @ 11.4¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.96
$-1.03
- YES
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?
22 shares @ 10.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.28
$0.11
- YES
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
18 shares @ 11.2¢·now 10.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$1.79
$-0.21
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 22?
31 shares @ 12.8¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$1.71
$-2.29
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?$0.99Jul 21, 21:00 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$7.05Jul 21, 18:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $3.00 on December 31, 2026?$5.17Jul 21, 17:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$0.00Jul 21, 14:49 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$0.00Jul 21, 14:49 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$2.50Jul 21, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$1.06Jul 21, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$1.04Jul 21, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$1.04Jul 21, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?$4.14Jul 21, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 21?$3.15Jul 21, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 22?$5.15Jul 21, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$2.62Jul 21, 10:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$3.15Jul 21, 10:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 22?$4.17Jul 21, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?$5.12Jul 21, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$4.20Jul 21, 10:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$5.25Jul 21, 10:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on July 22?$5.23Jul 21, 10:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 21?$37.47Jul 21, 10:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $3.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 16:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 21:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.