Necessary-Smell
0xd39511443dcf07fca8057a104799a3a269a84fd6
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
94
Open notional
$242.17
Total PnL
$-172.77
Realised
$3.81
Win rate
90%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 94- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
54 shares @ 56.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$53.57
$23.57
- NO
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
40 shares @ 87.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$36.41
$1.41
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
29 shares @ 93.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.44
$0.44
- DORTMUND ESPORTS
Valorant: Dortmund eSports vs ALTERNATE aTTaX - Map 2 Winner
25 shares @ 98.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$25.00
$0.30
- ALTERNATE ATTAX
Valorant: Dortmund eSports vs ALTERNATE aTTaX - Map 1 Winner
25 shares @ 98.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$25.00
$0.30
- NO
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?
25 shares @ 79.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.54
$3.54
- NO
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?
10 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$10.00
$1.00
- YES
Will G2 Esports win the LEC 2026 Versus?
9 shares @ 43.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$9.30
$5.30
- YES
Will Gen.G win the LCK Cup 2026?
9 shares @ 50.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$8.92
$4.42
- NO
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
8 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$8.14
$1.14
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00May 10, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 9, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 8, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 6, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 5, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 3, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 2, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 1, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 30, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 21, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
90% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 22, 00:45 UTC
- Last active
- May 10, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.