Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?
Probability
8¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$51.22
Liquidity
$10.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $10.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredIdentify the primary resolution source named in the market rules and confirm whether it can independently settle the outcome.
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Identify the primary resolution source named in the market rules and confirm whether it can independently settle the outcome. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 4794.1h
- 05:51SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 8¢.
Biggest hourly move: +4.5pp at Jun 9, 20:00 UTC (to 14¢).
Show top 8 of 15 hourly moves
- 20:00 · -3.5pp → 8¢
- Jun 12, 08:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 10¢
- Jun 10, 14:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 9¢
- Jun 10, 13:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 9¢
- Jun 10, 12:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 9¢
- Jun 10, 11:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 9¢
- Jun 10, 10:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 9¢
- Jun 9, 20:00 UTC · +4.5pp → 14¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Volodymyr Zelensky are photographed or videotaped together, in the same frame, between this market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic, not the result of artificial intelligence or video editing. The resolution source for this market will be the images or video of Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Volodymyr Zelensky together.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
putinReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "putin" — matched the Geopolitics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?"?
As of Sun, 14 Jun 2026 05:51:44 GMT, YES is priced at 8% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -1.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$51.22 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $67.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $10.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.