Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-96.59

Realised

$-21.84

Win rate

11 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 38

YES
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday?
1960 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026
$0.00
$-1.96
DOWN
XRP Up or Down - February 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
1960 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026
$0.00
$-1.96
YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on March 10?
983 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026
$0.00
$-1.96
YES
James Harden: Points O/U 22.5
371 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026
$0.00
$-1.96
UP
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
196 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026
$0.00
$-1.96
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
196 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026
$0.00
$-1.96
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
YES
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 on February 4?
83 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026
$0.00
$-1.96
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
15 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET
11 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00

Recent activity

TRADESELLWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$1.96Jul 13, 12:41 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$2.02Jul 13, 12:41 UTC
TRADESELLWill Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$1.96Jul 1, 17:02 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$2.02Jul 1, 17:02 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET$2.00Jul 1, 17:01 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET$2.02Jul 1, 16:58 UTC
TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.93Jul 1, 16:53 UTC
TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2.04Jul 1, 16:53 UTC
TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.96Jul 1, 16:52 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.03Jul 1, 16:52 UTC
TRADESELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.93Jul 1, 16:45 UTC
TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.06Jul 1, 16:45 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$2.06Jun 30, 14:51 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$2.02Jun 30, 14:47 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$2.02Jun 30, 14:04 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$2.13Jun 30, 13:54 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$2.02Jun 30, 13:53 UTC
TRADESELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.96Jun 29, 17:57 UTC
TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.03Jun 29, 17:57 UTC
TRADESELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.94Jun 26, 12:33 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

38/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 11 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity52 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence37 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry55 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk34 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 44
Avg trade size: $2.11
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 18, 12:32 UTC
Last active: Jul 13, 12:41 UTC
Win rate sample: 11 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 16:21:33 UTC·src:Polymarket Data