Left-Mailman
0xd3fe2e07253009268c3a6ba3507aa30a2cc82b28
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
198
Open notional
$3.2K
Total PnL
$-264.07
Realised
$-9.34
Win rate
25%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 198- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1818 shares @ 80.8¢·now 80.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.5K
$-11.48
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1815 shares @ 19.5¢·now 19.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$360.32
$6.81
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
104 shares @ 96.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$103.52
$3.52
- YES
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
95 shares @ 12.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$95.08
$82.89
- YES
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?
81 shares @ 98.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$80.43
$1.38
- YES
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?
68 shares @ 95.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$68.49
$3.28
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
90 shares @ 74.7¢·now 72.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$65.07
$-2.00
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?
62 shares @ 82.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$62.47
$10.79
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?
52 shares @ 78.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$51.77
$11.06
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
41 shares @ 94.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$38.18
$-0.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?$1.07Jul 21, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?$1.07Jul 21, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?$1.59Jul 21, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWashington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies$1.00Jul 21, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWashington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies$1.00Jul 21, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWashington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies$1.34Jul 21, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?$1.07Jul 21, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYSan Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves$1.04Jul 21, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYSan Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves$1.04Jul 21, 00:42 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYSan Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves$4.02Jul 20, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYPittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees$1.02Jul 20, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYPittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees$1.01Jul 20, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYPittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees$1.01Jul 20, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYPittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees$1.56Jul 20, 23:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYSan Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves$1.71Jul 20, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYPittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees$1.02Jul 20, 23:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Andy Burnham in July?$1.68Jul 20, 23:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Andy Burnham in July?$1.80Jul 20, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Andy Burnham in July?$1.63Jul 20, 22:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $7.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 22:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 07:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.