Finished-Wind
0xd44e974a3edb232aa4aedbdcc59792b76a5f67e2
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$253.8K
Total PnL
$42.7K
Realised
$20.4K
Win rate
100%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
32810 shares @ 74.5¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$29.5K
$5.1K
- NO
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
33090 shares @ 71.7¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$29.5K
$5.7K
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
47955 shares @ 55.8¢·now 50.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.2K
$-2.6K
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
24498 shares @ 79.5¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.7K
$2.2K
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
26051 shares @ 72.1¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.5K
$1.7K
- NO
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
23008 shares @ 63.5¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.1K
$3.5K
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
16753 shares @ 85.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.6K
$328.72
- NO
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
23326 shares @ 38.9¢·now 46.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$10.8K
$1.8K
- NO
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
11109 shares @ 89.6¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.7K
$725.34
- NO
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?
15999 shares @ 67.0¢·now 62.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$9.9K
$-803.03
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?$192.65Jul 28, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?$487.34Jul 28, 18:13 UTC
- REWARD$2.91Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$5.00Jul 27, 19:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$0.85Jul 27, 19:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.01Jul 27, 19:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.5KJul 27, 19:06 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$684.88Jul 27, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$1000.00Jul 27, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$764.59Jul 27, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$0.41Jul 27, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?$2.2KJul 27, 09:19 UTC
- REWARD$7.90Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?$2.6KJul 26, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$178.31Jul 26, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?$1.1KJul 26, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?$235.00Jul 26, 11:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.3KJul 26, 01:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.1KJul 26, 00:13 UTC
- REWARD$7.67Jul 26, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$12.4K
Trades
1
Buy share
54%
Window
Jun 13, 08:20 UTC → Jul 6, 12:03 UTC
- BUYWill Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?$6.7K@87¢Jul 6, 12:03 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 2 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$6.7K
1 trades
Buy share
54%
Sample
low
2 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
$6.7K · 54% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $683.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 13:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 19:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.