Optimistic-Cowboy
0xd51dbb6d86a9cc478b460102da71861986a81578
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
78
Open notional
$472.71
Total PnL
$-519.43
Realised
$68.45
Win rate
86%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 78- NO
Will gas hit $3.25 (Low) by July 31?
141 shares @ 98.2¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$140.21
$1.79
- NO
Will gas hit $4.50 (High) by July 31?
75 shares @ 98.8¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$74.55
$0.45
- NO
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
61 shares @ 58.3¢·now 81.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$49.24
$13.82
- NO
Will gas hit $3.00 (Low) by July 31?
37 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$36.85
$0.28
- NO
Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026?
29 shares @ 75.7¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.06
$4.26
- NO
Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 3.25T in 2026?
25 shares @ 77.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2027$21.50
$2.25
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?
20 shares @ 89.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$19.97
$2.17
- NO
Will gas hit $3.60 (Low) by July 31?
20 shares @ 96.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$19.70
$0.50
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?
17 shares @ 71.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$15.43
$3.19
- YES
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on July 29?
20 shares @ 42.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$15.40
$7.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on July 29?$8.59Jul 29, 10:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August?$276.44Jul 28, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 9, 2026?$0.58Jul 28, 17:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in August?$149.25Jul 28, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 1, 2026?$0.11Jul 28, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 26, 2026?$12.42Jul 28, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 25, 2026?$11.21Jul 28, 07:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill gas hit $3.25 (Low) by July 31?$51.39Jul 28, 05:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August?$260.83Jul 27, 20:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill gas hit $2.50 (Low) by July 31?$14.71Jul 27, 18:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill gas hit $2.50 (Low) by July 31?$9.99Jul 27, 18:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?$9.85Jul 27, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill gas hit $4.50 (High) by July 31?$74.14Jul 27, 13:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in August?$99.50Jul 27, 12:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August?$4.76Jul 27, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in August?$247.60Jul 27, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?$15.26Jul 27, 11:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill gas hit $2.50 (Low) by July 31?$8.99Jul 26, 12:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill gas hit $2.50 (Low) by July 31?$5.99Jul 26, 11:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill gas hit $2.50 (Low) by July 31?$25.00Jul 26, 09:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $48.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 13:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 10:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.