Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
Probability
41¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+3.5pp
24h Vol
$76.65
Liquidity
$9.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 41¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 12.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5980.5h
- 19:30SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+3.5pp over the last 24h, now 41¢.
Biggest hourly move: +9.5pp at 2d ago (to 44¢).
Show all 34 hour-by-hour ticks
- 14:00 · +3.0pp → 44¢
- 12:00 · -4.0pp → 37¢
- 10:00 · -9.0pp → 37¢
- 03:00 · +9.0pp → 44¢
- 02:00 · +9.0pp → 44¢
- 00:00 · +5.5pp → 40¢
- 22:00 · +3.0pp → 38¢
- 21:00 · +3.0pp → 38¢
- 20:00 · +3.0pp → 38¢
- 1d ago · +3.0pp → 38¢
- 1d ago · +3.0pp → 38¢
- 1d ago · +3.0pp → 38¢
- 1d ago · +3.0pp → 38¢
- 1d ago · +4.5pp → 39¢
- 1d ago · +3.5pp → 38¢
- 1d ago · +8.5pp → 43¢
- 1d ago · +8.5pp → 43¢
- 2d ago · +8.5pp → 43¢
- 2d ago · +9.5pp → 43¢
- 2d ago · +9.0pp → 43¢
- 2d ago · +7.0pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · +7.0pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · +9.5pp → 44¢
- 2d ago · +9.0pp → 44¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 40¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 40¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 40¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 41¢
- 2d ago · +6.5pp → 43¢
- 2d ago · +6.0pp → 43¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 40¢
- 2d ago · +7.5pp → 44¢
- 3d ago · +3.5pp → 40¢
- 3d ago · +4.5pp → 41¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump is photographed or videotaped wearing a Yarmulke/Kippah at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.