Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026?
Probability
22¢
1h
+4.0pp
24h
+7.5pp
24h Vol
$115.70
Liquidity
$6.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+8.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 8pp over 24h
Now 22¢; +4.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 14.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5986.6h
- 13:23SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:23PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 22¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 18¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 21¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 21¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 19¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 19¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 19¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 19¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 19¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 23¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 28¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jake Paul announces that he will run for any public office in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any public office refers to any elected government office in the United States, including at the federal, local, or state level. The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Jake Paul; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (14.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).