Aged-Fourths
0xd51eecde5eb93ba9ddb82c726fa17ba5f9373fcf
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$17.03
Total PnL
$0.03
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?
4 shares @ 54.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$3.64
$1.64
- YES
Will no CEO be announced in 2025?
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.00
$1.00
- YES
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?
2 shares @ 62.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$1.61
$0.61
- YES
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
2 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$1.59
$0.59
- YES
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
2 shares @ 65.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$1.54
$0.54
- YES
Will Vertiv Holdings (VRT) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 76.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.32
$0.32
- YES
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
1 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.30
$0.30
- YES
Will Savannah Louie win Survivor season 49?
1 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$1.25
$0.25
- YES
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?
1 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$1.11
$0.11
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
1 shares @ 72.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.92
$-0.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?$1.00Feb 11, 09:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?$1.00Feb 5, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYExtended FDV above $300M one day after launch?$1.00Jan 28, 04:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?$1.00Jan 22, 05:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vertiv Holdings (VRT) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?$1.00Jan 5, 06:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?$1.00Dec 24, 09:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill APT. by Rosé and Bruno Mars be the 3rd most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?$1.02Dec 17, 11:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025$1.15Dec 17, 11:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Angryginge win series 25 of "I'm a Celebrity... Get Me Out of Here!"?$1.30Dec 17, 11:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?$1.41Dec 17, 11:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?$1.49Dec 17, 11:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Switzerland win UEFA Group B for 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.69Dec 17, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?$1.00Dec 17, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYFelix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?$1.00Dec 9, 06:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill APT. by Rosé and Bruno Mars be the 3rd most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?$1.00Nov 26, 12:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Angryginge win series 25 of "I'm a Celebrity... Get Me Out of Here!"?$1.00Nov 19, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?$1.00Nov 12, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$1.00Nov 5, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the top AI model on December 31?$1.00Oct 29, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Savannah Louie win Survivor season 49?$1.00Oct 22, 09:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 11:41 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 11, 09:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.