0xd5b092cc2834e2809ca48d3c81ec365ba6377219
0xd5b092cc2834e2809ca48d3c81ec365ba6377219
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$1.34
Total PnL
$-307.79
Realised
$-68.09
Win rate
18%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- NO
New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31?
1 shares @ 98.8¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.15
$0.01
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?
4 shares @ 8.0¢·now 5.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.19
$-0.11
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on April 6?
453 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-3.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C or higher on April 7?
413 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-9.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 12?
404 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-4.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C or below on April 13?
396 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.39
- YES
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?
357 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.79
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on April 6?
349 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-8.53
- YES
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?
312 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-21.87
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C on April 12?
222 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-4.64
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 12?$0.00Jul 1, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or higher on April 13?$0.00Jul 1, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on April 6?$0.00Jul 1, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?$0.00Jul 1, 15:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 6?$0.00Jul 1, 15:53 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jul 1, 15:53 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$1.39Jul 1, 15:53 UTC
- REDEEMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?$1.23Jul 1, 15:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$0.00Jul 1, 15:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$1.68Jul 1, 15:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Neymar play in the World Cup?$0.00Jul 1, 15:52 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$182.92Jul 1, 15:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Neymar play in the World Cup?$12.17Jul 1, 15:52 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$0.00Jul 1, 15:52 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$1.85Jul 1, 15:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?$3.74Jul 1, 15:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Belgium win on 2026-06-15?$69.44Jul 1, 15:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$5.46Jul 1, 15:51 UTC
- REDEEMUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$12.65Jul 1, 15:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 30?$15.34Jun 29, 14:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
18% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $16.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 20, 14:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 15:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.