UnclassifiedExpires —
Creator

Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?

Probability

11¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.5pp

24h Vol

$13.3K

Liquidity

$15.9K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
—
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
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Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 30, 2026, 23:00May 6, 2026, 03:03
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-06T03-03Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $15.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Price movement

+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 11¢.

Biggest hourly move: -39.5pp at 16:00 (to 9¢).

Show top 8 of 37 hourly moves
  • 22:00 · -29.5pp → 11¢
  • 20:00 · -37.0pp → 11¢
  • 19:00 · -38.0pp → 10¢
  • 18:00 · -38.5pp → 10¢
  • 16:00 · -39.5pp → 9¢
  • 14:00 · -38.0pp → 10¢
  • 12:00 · -37.5pp → 10¢
  • 11:00 · -37.5pp → 10¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWho will be arrested before 2027?
Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Alerts

¢
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Top Holders

18 wallets
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