Dimpled-Cacao
0xd5beaefade3d43c861d9031387c265cd709e0e42
Wallet digest
Activity score
96/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
44
Open notional
$5.1K
Total PnL
$-136.69
Realised
$-109.67
Win rate
68%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 44- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
750 shares @ 88.2¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$747.48
$85.94
- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
656 shares @ 82.9¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$626.42
$82.80
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
597 shares @ 97.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$595.96
$11.06
- NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
351 shares @ 98.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$349.86
$5.97
- NO
Yoon out of custody before 2027?
335 shares @ 85.7¢·now 89.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$300.64
$13.29
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
278 shares @ 87.1¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$262.31
$20.62
- NO
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?
250 shares @ 94.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$239.88
$4.88
- NO
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027?
250 shares @ 92.3¢·now 95.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$238.00
$7.25
- NO
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?
258 shares @ 87.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$233.54
$9.20
- NO
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
250 shares @ 88.0¢·now 89.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$224.25
$4.25
Recent activity
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$153.25Jul 29, 21:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$515.15Jul 29, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?$65.11Jul 29, 15:12 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$107.69Jul 29, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$199.33Jul 29, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$199.57Jul 29, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?$61.62Jul 29, 07:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?$65.95Jul 29, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?$107.63Jul 29, 03:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?$18.80Jul 29, 03:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?$108.57Jul 29, 03:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$0.25Jul 29, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$5.29Jul 29, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$4.89Jul 29, 00:20 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$181.04Jul 28, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$135.10Jul 28, 19:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$79.24Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$46.21Jul 28, 16:00 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$33.45Jul 28, 15:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by July 31?$5.18Jul 28, 14:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
68% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $42.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 00:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 21:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.