Grubby-Pavement
0xd5d3fde8ecf9d1c29bf8665a120971330ed8a77b
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
74
Open notional
$4.3K
Total PnL
$-842.62
Realised
$-46.58
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 74- NO
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch?
360 shares @ 47.7¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$307.65
$135.93
- NO
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
761 shares @ 53.5¢·now 36.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$277.80
$-129.21
- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
257 shares @ 65.5¢·now 80.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$206.91
$38.90
- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
245 shares @ 69.7¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$195.57
$25.06
- NO
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
154 shares @ 65.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$153.85
$53.85
- NO
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?
175 shares @ 57.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$149.12
$49.12
- NO
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
164 shares @ 61.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$145.90
$45.90
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
154 shares @ 65.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$142.31
$42.31
- NO
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
143 shares @ 70.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$137.79
$37.79
- NO
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
137 shares @ 73.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$135.55
$35.55
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.11Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 20, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 19, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.