Adventurous-Democrat-Pickaxe
0xd6df99cedecd9ae5cf7b9f830a5d8ca59cc0d71d
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
11
Open notional
$163.91
Total PnL
$-20.32
Realised
$-2.23
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will the Republican Party win the MI-04 House seat?
76 shares @ 40.0¢·now 40.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$30.45
$0.00
- NO
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
60 shares @ 59.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$29.04
$-6.29
- YES
Will Emmet Carroll win the 2026 PLL Goalie of the Year?
81 shares @ 32.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$22.25
$-3.64
- YES
Will Will Venable win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?
50 shares @ 44.9¢·now 42.2¢·exp Dec 19, 2026$21.10
$-1.35
- YES
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 37.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.75
$-5.75
- NO
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?
21 shares @ 56.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$12.63
$0.64
- YES
Will Dave Bronson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
30 shares @ 41.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$12.15
$-0.15
- NO
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?
23 shares @ 52.0¢·now 42.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.47
$-2.25
- YES
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?
18 shares @ 39.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$5.94
$-1.08
- YES
Will Ryan Terefenko win the 2026 PLL Hard Hat Award (SSDM)?
9 shares @ 24.0¢·now 46.0¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$4.14
$1.98
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ryan Terefenko win the 2026 PLL Hard Hat Award (SSDM)?$2.16Jul 28, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?$5.82Jul 28, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?$29.50Jul 28, 14:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?$36.50Jul 28, 11:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 24 and 27 inclusive?$1.78Jul 28, 09:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Arizona Diamondbacks clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?$1.75Jul 28, 09:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?$1.30Jul 28, 09:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Arizona Diamondbacks clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?$2.00Jul 28, 09:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat?$9.40Jul 28, 06:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dylan Cease win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?$13.42Jul 28, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Emmet Carroll win the 2026 PLL Goalie of the Year?$25.89Jul 28, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Will Venable win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?$22.45Jul 28, 03:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Arizona Diamondbacks clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?$5.21Jul 28, 02:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Arizona Diamondbacks clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?$3.31Jul 28, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?$38.00Jul 28, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dylan Cease win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?$14.39Jul 28, 01:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?$4.20Jul 28, 01:00 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.19Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?$2.45Jul 28, 00:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?$14.33Jul 28, 00:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $11.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 08:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 16:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.