Helpful-Tatami
0xd823721597a464008050819ecc2d6c2c43e512fe
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.0K
Total PnL
$-68.10
Realised
$17.07
Win rate
73%
89 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Tabi FDV above $250M one day after launch?
10 shares @ 90.0¢·now 91.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.10
$0.10
- NO
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
10 shares @ 90.0¢·now 90.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$9.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026?
10 shares @ 90.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.00
$0.00
- NO
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?
10 shares @ 90.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.95
$-0.05
- NO
Perena FDV above $400M one day after launch?
10 shares @ 87.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$8.90
$0.20
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?
10 shares @ 89.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$8.85
$-0.05
- YES
Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
10 shares @ 88.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.85
$0.05
- NO
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31?
10 shares @ 89.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.85
$-0.05
- NO
Cambria FDV above $100M one day after launch?
10 shares @ 88.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$8.85
$0.05
- NO
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
10 shares @ 86.1¢·now 87.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.77
$0.15
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the IA-03 House seat?$7.60Aug 18, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award?$7.50Aug 18, 11:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?$7.60Aug 18, 10:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?$6.39Aug 18, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsraeli election results in a hung parliament?$6.80Aug 18, 10:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?$2.58Aug 18, 10:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?$7.80Aug 18, 10:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?$5.10Aug 18, 10:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?$8.97Aug 18, 10:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alfonso Sánchez García win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?$2.33Aug 18, 10:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat?$6.11Aug 18, 10:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$5.90Aug 18, 09:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Guadalajara win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?$0.95Aug 18, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael election: will Likud lose seats?$8.07Aug 18, 09:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?$2.50Aug 18, 09:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?$7.50Aug 18, 09:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alfonso Sánchez García win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?$2.20Aug 18, 09:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31?$7.56Aug 18, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31?$0.84Aug 18, 09:01 UTC
- TRADESELLVariational FDV above $1B one day after launch?$2.76Aug 18, 08:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
78/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 89 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
89 closed markets, 73% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 18, 05:06 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 11:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 89 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.