Helpful-Tatami
0xd823721597a464008050819ecc2d6c2c43e512fe
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$751.03
Total PnL
$-30.42
Realised
$3.53
Win rate
100%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
26 shares @ 78.2¢·now 79.8¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$20.42
$0.40
- NO
Will Congress override any veto in 2026?
12 shares @ 92.4¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.49
$0.01
- NO
Will Nito Abreu win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?
15 shares @ 78.7¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$10.57
$-1.22
- YES
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 67.3¢·now 64.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$9.60
$-0.50
- NO
Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?
15 shares @ 70.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Sep 8, 2026$9.60
$-0.90
- NO
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers?
10 shares @ 94.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$9.36
$-0.04
- NO
Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?
10 shares @ 94.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.35
$-0.05
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in July 2026?
10 shares @ 92.6¢·now 91.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$9.14
$-0.12
- YES
Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026?
10 shares @ 90.8¢·now 87.9¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$8.79
$-0.28
- NO
Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
10 shares @ 90.7¢·now 86.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.68
$-0.39
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 in July?$3.55Jul 1, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 in July?$4.66Jul 1, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $164 in July?$4.15Jul 1, 13:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.60Jul 1, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $164 in July?$4.55Jul 1, 13:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?$1.85Jul 1, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?$0.60Jul 1, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$2.25Jul 1, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $14B by July 31?$4.30Jul 1, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?$1.51Jul 1, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 220m and 240m?$1.40Jul 1, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?$4.45Jul 1, 12:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 in July?$4.87Jul 1, 12:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$0.45Jul 1, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?$4.14Jul 1, 12:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$0.90Jul 1, 12:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude be restored for international customers by September 30?$4.99Jul 1, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.00Jul 1, 12:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$4.30Jul 1, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$0.75Jul 1, 12:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 11:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 13:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.