Israel election: will Likud lose seats?
Probability
76¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$21.32
Liquidity
$462.56
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Oct 27, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-11.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 76¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $463 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Oct 27, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Oct 27, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 3933.2h
Price movement
-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 76¢.
Biggest hourly move: -14.0pp at May 12, 15:00 UTC (to 75¢).
Show top 8 of 51 hourly moves
- May 14, 09:00 UTC · -12.5pp → 74¢
- May 14, 08:00 UTC · -12.0pp → 75¢
- May 13, 03:00 UTC · -12.0pp → 76¢
- May 13, 02:00 UTC · -12.0pp → 76¢
- May 12, 22:00 UTC · -13.0pp → 75¢
- May 12, 19:00 UTC · -13.0pp → 76¢
- May 12, 17:00 UTC · -13.0pp → 75¢
- May 12, 15:00 UTC · -14.0pp → 75¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
israelReason
Question text contains "israel" — matched the Geopolitics keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Israel election: will Likud lose seats?"?
As of Sat, 16 May 2026 02:48:15 GMT, YES is priced at 76% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -11.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Oct 27, 2026 (2026-10-27T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$21.32 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $448.53. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $462.56. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.