Grumpy-Due
0xd8b55334be534f23299b29b6ab227ba0685fec4d
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$20.70
Total PnL
$-6.29
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $670 in July?
4 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$3.49
$-0.01
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?
3 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$3.40
$-0.00
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in July?
3 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$3.10
$0.00
- NO
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
3 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.02
$0.01
- NO
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
3 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.80
$-0.00
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?
3 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.3¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$2.79
$-0.01
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in July?
2 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$2.10
$0.00
- YES
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will Daniel Quintero win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
363 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.09
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on November 25?
325 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 25, 2025$0.00
$-1.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in July?$3.10Jul 23, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$2.80Jul 22, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?$2.80Jul 22, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $670 in July?$3.50Jul 20, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$3.00Jul 17, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,100 in July?$2.10Jul 16, 19:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?$3.40Jul 14, 04:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$94.58Jul 4, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$94.31Jun 6, 18:32 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?$94.28Jun 4, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?$94.00Jun 2, 17:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?$1.11Jun 1, 11:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May?$4.24Jun 1, 11:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?$4.12Jun 1, 11:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?$2.12Jun 1, 02:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$4.51May 31, 21:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$78.06May 31, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$77.91May 30, 10:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$4.51May 30, 07:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$12.02May 30, 06:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $24.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 5, 05:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 02:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.