Forked-Wrench
0xd8e6890eb637e3208150dbc04b06d1471c4d819f
Activity score
96/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$370.81
Total PnL
$-3.82
Realised
$-5.57
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
62 shares @ 94.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$61.85
$3.36
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
52 shares @ 96.5¢·now 97.3¢·exp May 31, 2026$50.39
$0.39
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
53 shares @ 95.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$50.24
$0.26
- NO
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?
35 shares @ 85.2¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.59
$2.59
- NO
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?
33 shares @ 90.6¢·now 97.2¢·exp May 31, 2026$32.17
$2.17
- NO
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
33 shares @ 88.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$28.78
$-0.50
- NO
Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
32 shares @ 94.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$27.91
$-2.07
- NO
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
45 shares @ 67.4¢·now 61.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$27.13
$-2.87
- NO
Will Alberta join the US?
23 shares @ 97.8¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.26
$-0.51
- YES
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
11 shares @ 94.0¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.40
$0.51
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Hong Kong have between 130-140mm of precipitation in April?$30.311h ago
- REDEEMWill Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April?$30.601h ago
- REDEEMWill Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April?$31.241h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$30.051d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$29.422d ago
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?$50.082d ago
- REDEEMWill Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?$15.083d ago
- REDEEMWill Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?$12.883d ago
- TRADEBUYTrump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?$30.004d ago
- REDEEMWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?$665.624d ago
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April?$0.085d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April?$30.055d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April?$30.245d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?$102.445d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?$301.725d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Kong have between 130-140mm of precipitation in April?$30.015d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April?$30.025d ago
- REDEEMWill 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?$5.006d ago
- REDEEMWill 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?$0.006d ago
- TRADESELLParis Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5$43.306d ago
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $56.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- 12d ago
- Last active
- 1h ago
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".