0xd98df245142cc3fcf1b0b2102f2973ae8a169b45
0xd98df245142cc3fcf1b0b2102f2973ae8a169b45
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$0.54
Total PnL
$-49.12
Realised
$-2.66
Win rate
0%
27 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- YES
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 2.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.44
$-0.56
- YES
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31?
15 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.7¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.10
$-0.90
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 1?
1111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 on July 1?
1111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will "Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 26?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 26?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $53,000 on June 26?
147 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$9.01Jul 20, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $55 on July 1?$1.08Jul 1, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $100 on July 1?$1.08Jul 1, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 1?$10.79Jul 1, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $52,000 on July 1?$10.79Jul 1, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?$1.01Jul 1, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?$1.01Jul 1, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?$1.01Jul 1, 05:54 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$0.00Jul 1, 05:54 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - June 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$0.00Jul 1, 05:54 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$0.00Jul 1, 05:54 UTC
- REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - June 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$0.00Jul 1, 05:54 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$1.15Jun 30, 13:29 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - June 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$1.23Jun 30, 13:29 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$1.75Jun 30, 13:29 UTC
- REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - June 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$1.52Jun 30, 13:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief" be the top US Netflix movie this week?$1.06Jun 30, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top US Netflix movie this week?$1.06Jun 30, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - June 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$1.03Jun 30, 12:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$1.04Jun 30, 12:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 27 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $1.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 26, 11:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 05:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 27 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.