0xda0f426005ad0c8ed453f4dde98c6ef49c772a19
0xda0f426005ad0c8ed453f4dde98c6ef49c772a19
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
51
Open notional
$5.3K
Total PnL
$114.29
Realised
$7.35
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 51- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
2086 shares @ 95.2¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.0K
$21.96
- NO
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
865 shares @ 91.6¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$808.40
$16.03
- NO
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
425 shares @ 91.0¢·now 93.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$395.90
$9.45
- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
272 shares @ 92.0¢·now 95.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$259.64
$9.24
- NO
US x China Military clash before 2027?
228 shares @ 93.5¢·now 95.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$217.61
$4.76
- YES
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
221 shares @ 85.1¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$195.41
$7.41
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
166 shares @ 88.6¢·now 96.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$160.24
$12.89
- YES
Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?
159 shares @ 83.1¢·now 81.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$128.50
$-3.33
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
102 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$99.52
$0.02
- NO
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
89 shares @ 91.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$85.33
$4.50
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.24Aug 13, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$8.92Aug 12, 23:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the People’s Bank of China decrease rates by September 30?$4.01Aug 12, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the People’s Bank of China decrease rates by September 30?$4.41Aug 12, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the People’s Bank of China decrease rates by September 30?$4.41Aug 12, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the People’s Bank of China decrease rates by September 30?$4.54Aug 12, 01:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Aug 12, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?$22.94Aug 11, 14:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Aug 11, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?$21.17Aug 10, 17:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?$10.97Aug 10, 15:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?$3.00Aug 10, 12:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$3.11Aug 10, 11:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?$6.78Aug 10, 11:37 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Aug 10, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?$2.00Aug 9, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?$2.51Aug 9, 15:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Aug 9, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Aug 8, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xi meet with Takaichi by September 30, 2026?$4.31Aug 7, 14:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $9.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 10:01 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.