0xda498b56321532a2014543850ffadeaf05406176
0xda498b56321532a2014543850ffadeaf05406176
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$40.35
Total PnL
$56.43
Realised
$66.98
Win rate
54%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" this week? (March 22)
19 shares @ 68.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$18.96
$5.89
- NO
Will Trump say "Third term" in March?
8 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$7.82
$1.56
- YES
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
5 shares @ 69.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.00
$1.52
- NO
Will Trump visit China by March 31?
3 shares @ 34.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$3.31
$2.17
- YES
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
5 shares @ 64.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.52
$-0.68
- YES
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" this week? (March 15)
2 shares @ 71.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$2.42
$0.68
- YES
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 21.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.33
$-0.72
- YES
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
36 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-0.04
- YES
Will Trump say "Khamenei" this week? (March 22)
9 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-3.79
- NO
Will "Ballet" be said at the Oscars?
8 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-3.26
Recent activity
- MERGEWill Trump say "Roadside Bomb" this week? (March 22)$3.58Mar 15, 16:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Roadside Bomb" this week? (March 22)$2.94Mar 15, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Roadside Bomb" this week? (March 22)$2.52Mar 15, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Roadside Bomb" this week? (March 22)$7.40Mar 15, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Roadside Bomb" this week? (March 22)$1.75Mar 15, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Roadside Bomb" this week? (March 22)$2.52Mar 15, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Roadside Bomb" this week? (March 22)$7.00Mar 15, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Roadside Bomb" this week? (March 22)$2.52Mar 15, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Roadside Bomb" this week? (March 22)$1.65Mar 15, 16:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Roadside Bomb" this week? (March 22)$2.46Mar 15, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Roadside Bomb" this week? (March 22)$6.60Mar 15, 16:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Roadside Bomb" this week? (March 22)$4.75Mar 15, 16:13 UTC
- MERGEWill Trump say "Sleepy Joe" this week? (March 22)$2.23Mar 15, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Sleepy Joe" this week? (March 22)$7.00Mar 15, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Sleepy Joe" this week? (March 22)$0.80Mar 15, 16:12 UTC
- MERGEWill Trump say "Roadside Bomb" this week? (March 22)$1.00Mar 15, 16:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Roadside Bomb" this week? (March 22)$5.25Mar 15, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Sleepy Joe" this week? (March 22)$6.80Mar 15, 16:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Roadside Bomb" this week? (March 22)$10.01Mar 15, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Roadside Bomb" this week? (March 22)$6.00Mar 15, 16:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
54% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $4.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 15, 15:43 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 15, 16:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.